Post by bryant on Oct 29, 2013 19:37:09 GMT -8
This is a probability concept or puzzle i've been thinking of and i was wondering how it could be solved or simplified.
Lets say you are at a raffle or auction event and there are 200 mystery boxes, out of the 200 boxes 199 of them are filled with small prizes. Only one box out of the 200 has an amazing grand prize. At any point in the raffle you can buy 1 box, 5 boxes or 10 boxes. The boxes you buy will be unopened and you can only have a maximum of 50 unopened boxes at any given time. when you open a mystery box it disqualifies you temporarily from bidding (it takes time to unwrap and open the mystery box), potentially giving the other bidders a chance to win instead of you.
When will your probability of getting the grand prize be the highest? Because its an auction, other people will also be buying and the possibility of getting the prize will increase over time; statistically at 50 out of 200 boxes you will have a 100% chance of winning if you buy in bulk 50 boxes at once. However realistically, at 50 out of 200 boxes everyone will start buying and the chance that you win will be low because someone might buy before you.
Is their a mathematical way or certain logical approach to maximize the possibility of winning the grand prize?
Lets say you are at a raffle or auction event and there are 200 mystery boxes, out of the 200 boxes 199 of them are filled with small prizes. Only one box out of the 200 has an amazing grand prize. At any point in the raffle you can buy 1 box, 5 boxes or 10 boxes. The boxes you buy will be unopened and you can only have a maximum of 50 unopened boxes at any given time. when you open a mystery box it disqualifies you temporarily from bidding (it takes time to unwrap and open the mystery box), potentially giving the other bidders a chance to win instead of you.
When will your probability of getting the grand prize be the highest? Because its an auction, other people will also be buying and the possibility of getting the prize will increase over time; statistically at 50 out of 200 boxes you will have a 100% chance of winning if you buy in bulk 50 boxes at once. However realistically, at 50 out of 200 boxes everyone will start buying and the chance that you win will be low because someone might buy before you.
Is their a mathematical way or certain logical approach to maximize the possibility of winning the grand prize?